The stabilization of China's economic growth has promoted a rebound in rubber demand. Data show that the price of natural rubber at the beginning of September was 19,130 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 5.6% month-on-month. The reporter learned that this trend may continue for some time.
Domestic purchasing and storage is coming
The National Reserve Bureau planned to purchase and store 150,000 to 200,000 tons of natural rubber in batches from the end of 2012 to 2013 from three units, including Hainan Rubber and Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation, as war preparation materials for production and storage. At the end of 2012, 60,000 tons were purchased and stored. According to data, the national reserve price last year was 24,600 yuan, mainly purchased from the spot market. The remaining 90,000 to 140,000 tons will be purchased and stored in the second half of this year. The purchase and storage price is the monthly average futures price plus 300 yuan per ton. Due to the large amount of reserves, although the Reserve Bureau has not yet issued a specific implementation plan, as soon as the news came out, market confidence was quickly boosted, stimulating a rebound in rubber prices. Looking at the 1401 futures rubber contract, the price at the beginning of February this year was 27,515 yuan, and the price at the end of June was only 17,475 yuan, a decline of 36.48%. In the past two years, natural rubber prices have been running in a downward channel. Some market participants believe that the National Reserve Board can be said to be ready to move at this time, and even break the balance of supply and demand for natural rubber in the second half of the year.
In addition, the August data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the PMI of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 51%, a 16-month high, higher than the market's expected 50.6%, and the final value in July was 50.3%. This once again confirms the judgment that the Chinese economy has stabilized. Most products in the domestic petrochemical industry showed signs of turning red. Stimulated by multiple domestic positive factors, synthetic rubber and synthetic resins also stabilized.
International supply and demand tighten
A few days ago, the chairman of the Indonesian Rubber Association stated that due to the continued low prices in the international market and the impact of floods, the reduction in Indonesian rubber production this year is basically a foregone conclusion. The annual output is expected to be about 2.8 million tons, down 6.6% year-on-year; exports are 2.32 million tons, year-on-year Down by 5%. According to data from the Japan Natural Rubber Association, natural rubber stocks in Japanese ports are 7,571 tons, the lowest point since June 20. Yium Tavarolit, executive officer of the International Rubber Union, said that rubber prices have stopped falling and have entered a correction phase. The price increase will depend on the demand situation.
Source: China Chemical Industry News
