Hangzhou Hezi Technology Co., Ltd.
News Center
Hezi technology focuses on the research and development of "rapid seamless conveyor belt joint sleeve" innovative technology project
NEWS CENTER
News Details
Butadiene: Just need to increase "money", the future is bright
Release time:
2013-01-14
2013 chemical market outlook At the end of 2012, the butadiene market ended with Panjin Ethylene and Qixiang Tengda increasing their market prices. People have reason to believe that butadiene will enter 2013 with a good start.
2013 chemical market outlook
At the end of 2012, the butadiene market ended with Panjin Ethylene and Qixiang Tengda increasing their market prices. People have reason to believe that butadiene will enter 2013 with a good start.
In 2012, the butadiene market encountered "Waterloo", and the price was cut in half. From a high of 27,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) in February, it fell all the way to around 12,000 yuan in early December. The main reasons are that firstly, the terminal demand is not strong, and the automobile and tire industries are in a downturn; secondly, the influx of foreign products, the annual import volume is expected to be 260,000 tons, an increase of more than 40%; thirdly, the release of production capacity by multiple projects. Qixiang Tengda 100,000 tons/year, Fushun Petrochemical 120,000 tons/year, Daqing Petrochemical 90,000 tons/year and Chengdu Ethylene 150,000 tons/year have been put into operation successively.
Even so, compared to other chemical products, butadiene is still one of the most "money" products. Even at the lowest point, the profit margin is 2,000 to 3,000 yuan, and it has a strong ability to resist market risks. Among the bulk chemical raw materials, butadiene is still the most promising chemical raw material by market participants in 2013.
Rigid demand soars
The main downstream products of butadiene include butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber and ABS resin, which account for 37%, 33% and 12% respectively. Butadiene is the only raw material of butadiene rubber, butadiene, the raw material of styrene butadiene rubber, accounts for 70%. Driven by the rapid development of the automobile and other industries, the production capacity of styrene butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber is rapidly expanding. Styrene-butadiene rubber, domestic production capacity was 1.1 million tons in 2009, and soared to around 1.7 million tons in 2012; butadiene rubber production capacity also broke out in 2012, with Maoming Petrochemical 100,000 tons/year and Chengdu Ethylene 150,000 tons /Year, Shandong Chinachem and other new installations are included in the production scheduling plan, and the new capacity reaches 800,000 tons/year. Although the operating rate of the device is affected in the case of sluggish terminal demand, the rigid demand for the raw material butadiene of these new and old devices has already formed a scale and will still maintain a high level in 2013.
Resources are becoming scarce
Compared with the dramatic expansion of styrene butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber production capacity, the growth pace of butadiene supply capacity is obviously lagging behind. As a by-product of naphtha cracking ethylene, butadiene can only be produced when the ethylene plant is put into operation and must be a naphtha cracking method. Currently, only large petrochemical companies such as PetroChina and Sinopec have such production capacity. In 2011, the newly added capacity of ethylene was 2.5 million tons. In 2012, the newly added capacity of ethylene was 6.5 million tons. In 2013, the new capacity of ethylene may fall to 2 million tons. At the same time, a new process for cracking ethylene with shale gas and petroleum gas has appeared abroad, and the cost is nearly half that of the current naphtha process, but this new process does not by-produce butadiene. Therefore, as manufacturers adopt cheaper ethylene cracking processes, butadiene output will become increasingly scarce in the future. People optimistically predict that the butadiene market in 2013 will have a more optimistic trend compared to 2012.
There is still room for price increase
Because of the small elasticity of supply and the large downstream demand, butadiene has always been a hot spot for traders and rubber companies to speculate, and prices can often go out of unexpected curves and highs. From the perspective of profitability, the overall profitability of the synthetic rubber industry has rebounded, and compared with other products, it is a high-value-added product and has a strong ability to withstand the price increase of raw materials. Statistics show that the gross profit of the rubber products industry in 2012 is close to the historical high of 2009, so the high butadiene price will not have a particularly significant impact on the downstream. In 2013, there is still room for further increase in butadiene prices.
The economic environment improves
The economy in 2013 may be better than in 2012. According to the forecasts of authoritative departments, China's macroeconomic growth rate has shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding from the previous month. With the warming of the macro economy, the pressure on micro enterprises will quickly ease. Compared with 2012, the world economic growth rate in 2013 will not fluctuate too much, and it is more likely to be roughly flat or rise slightly. At the same time, the US monetary policy continues to be loose, and the Federal Reserve has successively launched QE3 and QE4. There is a high probability that crude oil prices will remain high, which will support the butadiene price rebound from the cost aspect.
However, there are still some unfavorable factors in 2013, putting pressure on the butadiene market. On November 1, 2012, the U.S. Labeling Law was officially implemented, covering almost all tires, and it is mandatory to prohibit the import and sale of tires that do not meet the standards. Although there are only a few countries implementing the labeling law, once it is fully implemented globally, it will affect 56% of my country’s passenger car tire exports and 23% of its heavy truck tire exports. The impact will reach about US$5 billion, which will account for the total domestic tires. 15% of the output value will have a very serious impact on the domestic tire industry, which will affect the strength of butadiene and downstream rubber products. In addition, a series of problems such as labor costs, shortage of funds, and blocked exports will continue to suppress the chemical market, including butadiene.
In summary, in the interweaving of long and short, the butadiene market in 2013 may be favorable or will become the dominant one. Especially under the support of increasing rigid demand and tight resources, butadiene is expected to submit a satisfactory answer.
Recommend News
Address
Address: No.82 Liangnong Road, Liangzhu street, Yuhang District, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province
Contact Information
Telephone:+86-571-88778905
Business consulting:+86-16657119700
Fax: +86-0571-88781967
Website
Website:www.hezikj.com
Official Mall:https://hzhlxjzp.1688.com/
Zip Code: 311113
Alibaba
Copyright © 2025 Hangzhou Hezi Technology Co., Ltd. | Powered by www.300.cn